Eurozone tried to rally from morning lows, but sold off into Europe close. E-minis were not being bought during this time either.
There is a potential decoupling of European (softer) and US (higher) inflation. It is unclear to me if there is a real economic fundamental decoupling underway as well.
Middle East tensions persist, and may be creating a ceiling in stocks. Rallies appear to be sold: 5100 seems a key level on the SPX and 4900 a key on the SX5E. It seems to me like cash is being raised to buy a sell-off from an escalation in the Middle East. I haven’t tracked dividend payouts, which may be causing rebalancing as well right about now.
Market is tracking to being oversold, and is trading along the lower range boundary. Last gap up on 21 February 2024 closes at 4807. Middle East tensions are augmenting Eastern European tensions. Blue Skies are not on the horison.
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