I haven’t traded on Friday the 19th, nor on Monday the 22nd: thus no updates. Today, my European headlines read that German PMI rises significantly beyond expectation, 50.x expected actual was 51.7. Despite the confidence displayed by German purchasing managers, ECB’s Nagel commented that rate cuts may still go ahead if inflation remains under control. US headlines read that aid flows to Ukraine and Israel have been confirmed by the US Senate today. Not Russia, nor Iran made my macro headlines.
I am uncertain whether this is a relief rally, i.e. that Germany avoids recession and US continues to support its allies. It may also a purely technical rally from a somewhat oversold RSI and some days of hugging the lower end of the trading range. So, likely a combination for today’s +1% bounce.
If I were an Elliott Wave enthusiast, I would be slightly worried as the E-mini chart looks like it is correcting in a 4th wave.
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