Trading is risky. You can lose all the money you put into a trade or investment. Be skeptical before you make any and every trade. Be skeptical of all writing, news and anything claiming to be information.

QT or higher for longer

A Trading 101 lesson that I forgotten I was reminded of the hard way this week. That lesson is that expectations of the future are priced into an asset price. A bit more nuanced, a price is based on a balance of history and future expectations, including discount rates (dependent on monetary policy rates set by central banks in their collective wisdom). I simply forgot that the Fed’s committee was meeting and communicating this week. Lesson remembered.

The payment is for the small amount of time I spend to write my notes here. It is also - critically - an explicit acknowledgement by you that you have read and understand the 4 points below.

  1. I am not providing you with investment advice. Do your research and make your own decisions.
  2. I am not encouraging you to, nor asking you to trade.
  3. You will see at most two sentences that tell you what I am targeting, and why I have chosen this target range.
  4. You will likely be disappointed with what you read when you pay and consider your money wasted.